Draw Betting Strategy

Most bookmakers offer hundreds of markets to choose from. Draw betting appeals to those seeking higher prices. It’s more prevalent in football but is also available in other sports, like ice hockey, basketball and baseball. However, it’s not easy to yield profits, which is why many players look elsewhere. If you want to create a winning draw betting strategy, you must follow specific steps, such as choosing low-scoring leagues and using past stats to your advantage. Here, we will take a look at how often dead heats happen in each sport and how to predict a draw based on the highest odds. Let’s dive in.

How to Bet On Draws

Dead heats are the most demanding match result markets, and you must follow several rules to bolster your bankroll. Besides the game style, the tactics, and the attack and defence models, three major indicators can guide you in building an efficient draw betting strategy and learning how to bet online successfully.

Bet on singles

Your winning chances are more when placing one wager rather than combos, where you need more luck to receive returns. Moreover, it’s easier to analyze two teams and do extensive research for their match than spending more time repeating the process for three or four matches. Indeed, it’s risky to bet on draws, but you have more winning possibilities betting on singles compared to bigger ACCAs or combos.

Αvoid rare-draw sports

Racket sports, like tennis and badminton, have matches split into games and sets; even for close matches, the tie-breaks have ways of vanishing draws. Αmerican sports, like baseball and the NHL, always declare winning teams after extra innings or overtimes if necessary.

The regular-time draw odds are high because the outcome is rare, so you can find prices even more than 10.00; basketball stands in the same category. So, avoiding these sports is better if you want to be successful. However, if you are a race bettor, check what is a dead heat in horse racing in order to be well informed.

Follow the stats

Leagues’ and teams’ statistics that show the frequency of draws for specific periods are valuable for bettors who risk money on the market. If you find low-scoring teams (e.g., struggling offence, low xG) having a background of 4/6 draws in their recent matches and playing for a league with a near 30% draw percentage, you can back a no-winner end. Τhis research can help you bet on other markets, like DNBs, integrating what the Draw No Bet meaning in wagering is.

Betting On Draws Using Odds

One of the best measures of a tie is the prices of two specific markets. Fewer goals are expected if the odds are low for Over/Under and correct scores 0-0 & 1-1. As a consequence, a no-winner seems more likely. We delve deeper into these markets to show you how to predict a draw using odds.

Οver/Under odds

Suppose you check a match where you want to place a potential draw with odds of 2.60 - 3.00 - 2.60. The draw is the less possible outcome having a 33,33% winning chance compared to 38,46% for home and away wins, respectively. The home and away prices are the same, which means a match with an uncertain favourite and result.

The Over/Under 2,5 market has the 2.00 - 1.55 set; the implied probability of the Under 2,5 is 64,52%, so the zero, one, or two goals seem possible. Using the match result and the totals odds, you can conclude that the draw has a decent chance of happening.

Correct Score odds

Do you want to learn how to calculate correct score in football? Totals are relative to the correct score of a football match. You can check this market’s prices in football bookmakers and adjust your draw betting strategy according to what indicates. In a balanced English Premier League game between teams in the middle of the table, 0-0 and 1-1 pay around 10.00 and 7.50 odds.

If your research guides you to a match with a low price on Under 2,5 goals and 7.50 and 5.50 odds to the possible scores above, it seems pretty reasonable to back the draw result.

Which odds are likely to draw

All sports betting sites set prices having in mind two specific parameters. Firstly, to make a profit and adjust the prices based on what bettors are backing. If public opinion backs either opponent to win a match, the price of a draw will go much higher. So, there’s no specific odds range where you should prefer for your bets. The 3.00 odds is one of the most commonly exposed prices for a draw. There is no clear answer about which odds are likely to draw.

If we talk about wagering on a no-winner match with a high (e.g., 3.80) or low (e.g., 2.60) coefficient, it’s a matter of several factors (latest news research, stats analysis, etc.). However, backing draws with more than 30% chances, from 3.00 to 3.30 odds, seems reasonable.

Best Bookies for Draw Betting

The “X” probability varies from sport to sport, but specific factors can affect an event to end without a winner. So, before you start predicting and placing draws, look at the top online betting sites and check where you can find the best prices for draw betting.

How to Predict a Draw Using Odds

The most common sports to predict ties are football and ice hockey. You can also place a draw bet on basketball, baseball, and American football. However, the likelihood of your wager coming through is slim. For a better understanding, let’s analyze the probability of a draw in sports betting events and how you can make money by hunting matches with no winners.

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Also Read: Handicap Meaning In Bet

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Tips to bet on draws & win

Our online betting guides don’t outline tricks to show you how to predict draw. Using the maths of probability is the safest way to understand and hunt your winning chances. When chasing draws, you shouldn’t expect 50% of winning, not even 40%. If you secure a profit at a realistic winning percentage of around 30%, you have built an efficient sports betting strategy.

Motivation: A way of bettors’ thinking says that when two teams are close in standings, they have similar qualities and perspectives. So, it’s probable to cancel each other out, ending their match on draw. In some cases, it’s true, but two opponents with the same strength and motives, candidates for the crown, for example, usually are high-motivated when facing each other, hunting the win. So, before you evaluate the motivation factor, answer the question, “Will any of the two teams be happy with a draw?”.

Low-scoring teams: One of the bedrocks for draw betting is to understand your winning chances are boosted if you pick unproductive teams that face scoring difficulties. In the long term, your draw predictions can be more accurate by analyzing their introductory statistics. Teams with a low number of goals scored have increased chances that their next match will end tie.

Current form: It’s one of the most basic forms of analysis because consecutive draws for a team or a high draw percentage in a certain period aren’t a matter of luck. Several clubs and coaches have the specific thinking of not losing as their main target; that’s also a main principle to understand what is Double Chance bet. So, checking the past results before you place a draw seems a good idea.

How to predict draws in football matches

Matches with no winners aren’t the most common, but it’s a more frequent outcome than in other sports. Undoubtedly, the probabilities vary depending on the competition and some new coming factors like VAR. Lower leagues tend to feature fewer goals, which means that ties are more often; in that case, if you build a strategy on VAR betting, your wagers can’t be affected. Now, let’s take a look at how to predict draws in football matches, enhancing your professional betting strategy.

Leagues & Tournaments

Profiling specific domestic championships (e.g., EPL), international tournaments (Champions League) or competitions, like the World Cup, that finish within a month can’t secure accurate stats. Although, a percentage for each event can become a reliable indicator of how often matches end in a draw. For example, in the last two seasons, the French Ligue 1 has a 25,8%, while the UCL has a 23,2% Naturally, these numbers are changing, but it’s handy to know that draws in France are more.

Odds

Bettors risk draws to enjoy higher odds and more profit. However, in certain leagues, the prices show the draw as the favourite result, especially in the last matchdays; Italian Serie B and French Ligue 2 are the most known examples where the draw odds can be from 1.80 to 2.50. These prices have no value, so we strongly suggest avoiding these draw bets.

Expected Goals

Matches with low xG have higher chances of a draw ending. The Expected Goals metric shows how football teams played before their current match, indicating the number of goals expected to score. For instance, you can’t bet on draw in a Manchester City vs. Everton match for the EPL when the Citizens recorded an xG figure of 4,2 in their last league match; their opponents seem hard to catch them.

How to predict draw in ice hockey

Ice hockey games always declare a winner; if necessary, there are penalties or shootouts after a regular draw time. However, even in the biggest leagues, like the NHL and KHL, a draw after 60 minutes of skating is more frequent than in other team sports, like basketball and American football. You can find higher than 4.00 - 4.50 odds for draw betting, so if you want to risk it, follow the piece of advice below.

1st-period betting

Ice hockey is split into three 20-minute periods; in the NHL, the highest level worldwide, several solid franchises try to score first and build on the lead. On the flip side, some teams aim to play good defence and keep the rubber puck away from their nets. Especially for the 1st period, the draw odds are lower because it’s easier to end without a winner for the reasons above. In that case, you can bet on draw at 2.30 - 2.50 odds between teams with equal strength.

Goaltending

Goalies and their advanced statistics are critical parameters to indicate how to predict draw in ice hockey. An NHL game with two opponent goalies who provide an upper 94% shots saved percentage and a low number of goals against (e.g., 2,25) has a high probability of ending without a winner after 60 minutes.

Ηome-ice advantage

It’s a promising pattern when you want to place a draw on ice hockey betting sites, especially when underdogs play at home. The crowd support gives extra motivation to weaken teams, mostly in local derbies, helping them to stay alive in the 60-minute regular time and claim an OT or SO win.

Can you win from draw betting?

The draw attracts bettors as a possible outcome of the popular 1X2 market. In most cases, these bets have higher prices than home or away wins. So theoretically, you can receive substantial returns backing a tie. But how often can this happen? A draw betting strategy isn’t suitable for every sport; you should avoid basketball and American sports, where no-winner games are rare.

Besides the limited sports range, finding a suitable and reliable staking plan seems worthless. Using Fibonacci, D’Alembert, or Martingale progression betting systems, you may find yourself funding bets with higher stakes after only three or four losses. So, you can’t build on your bankroll without taking high risks, which is harmful in wagering.

Full List with Best Bookies for Draw Bets

You can examine the betting sites with the best odds in the list below, securing the highest value for your wagers. Take advantage and increase your profits from draw betting in football, ice hockey, and other sporting events where the market applies.