The Best Dropping Odds Strategy

Dropping odds is a condition in betting when the initial prices of specific markets decrease. Bettors use these odds in order to make a profit, finding value from any bookie that is late to adjust them. Experienced players monitor the real-time updates with two main targets. Firstly, they choose the highest value of one selection and then try to maximize the ROI (i.e., Return on Investment).

If you want to start betting on dropping odds and learn how to beat the bookies, registering with as many of them as possible is essential. Following this way, you will increase the number of choices, and you will be better positioned to take advantage of the situation. So, read on to learn why the initial prices decrease and how you can build a profitable dropping odds strategy.

Dropping Odds Meaning in Simple Words

Many bettors analyze pre-match odds as a tool to understand where they will place money. Then they choose whether to back the popular choice or not. Wagering on dropping odds means that you bet on a bookie that has yet to adjust the prices according to market movements. Let’s say the average industry odds are 2.00 for over 2.5 goals in a match. If a single bookmaker keeps the initial price at 2.40 odds, you can assume this is a good bet and buy it.

This betting trend is being created for various reasons and is affected by an unspecified number of factors. Some inside pieces of information about a team or an athlete might be transpired and increase a selection’s betting volume. One or more missing influencing players for a favorite can affect an odds set. Αnother parameter might be a rumor that a match is suspected of being fixed. Also, the large wagers on a specific probable outcome can lead online bookmakers and betting exchange sites to drop odds.

In betting, every trend based on a dropping odds strategy is determined not only from the factors above but from the leading bookies themselves. The top-rated bookies define the industry and the prices’ probable trends, making the odds movement possible.

How Moneyway affects odds dropping

Moneyway is an essential indicator that shows the amount and volume of the money wagered on a specific event. The more money wagered on one selection shows the greater possibility to happen. As a result, this influences the initial odds. In all cases that the Moneyway of a pick has a large percentage of money wagered, the odds drop is a natural consequence.

However, you might have also heard about this “heavy boat theory.” What does this mean? That you shouldn’t overrate this dropping odds issue. Many bettors are loading a specific selection, but it doesn’t prove that this selection will be a winning one. In fact, this theory asserts the exact opposite. When a boat is overloaded and becomes heavy, it has more chances to sink.

Just look at popular bets and trendy options about hot favorites, as you can find in our Grand National Tips and Predictions. You will find out that many of these favorites don’t win, even if they have gathered a significant total stake. So, it would be best if you always were suspicious when you come across these conditions on the most popular teams.

How to Build a Winning Dropping Odds Strategy

Understanding why the odds drop on a sporting event is hard-earned, but monitoring these changes and using the latest betting trends on specific markets isn’t difficult. Using a tracker, you can cache plenty of information just in a few minutes. You will be able to learn the percentage of odds decrease, the initial and closing odds. Read on some practical advice in order to create a dropping odds strategy.

⏩ You should divide your total bankroll into more than one online bookmaker. There’s no rule about the correct number in this dropping odds strategy, but having about 5-10 different accounts seems enough.

⏩ Be quick when you discover something that may affect the English Premier League odds, for example, like last-minute injuries or suspensions. You may be able to get a head start on the bookmaker. If odds drop for no apparent reason, you should seriously consider backing the team or player whose odds are now more profitable.

⏩ When you look at the odds, the most important thing to consider is the number of bookies where odds have moved. Usually, a basic movement is reliable when the odds have changed over 70% of the available betting firms. That is considered a global movement.

⏩ The total percentage of dropping odds is another fact. Odds could lower from 1.80 to 1.65, 3.00 to 2.80 or from 20.00 to 15.00. Which of them is truly worthy of being considered a crucial change? Usually, bettors follow the “15% Rule”; this specific percentage is the minimum limit of change. Any movement higher than 15% will alert those experienced ones.

Get the best dropping odds tips & win

Do you want to know how do bookies set odds? They aim to correct the starting prices to reflect the actual probability of a selection to happen or balance their VIG. A progressive or a sudden drop of the odds might be profitable for a player. An experienced bettor can secure an early return before the match where he places a bet on starts. Let’s get advice from the pure dropping odds meaning in pre-game markets using an extreme but real example based on a volleyball match from the Estonian Women Meistriliiga.

The starting odds for the visitor team TTU to win at Famila/Voru’s ground was 2.82 odds. A few hours before the game started, the odds based on TTU dropped at 1.02 odds. Let’s see how a bettor who places a €50 wager on TTU’s win secure returns hours before the match begins.

TTU Starting Odds	TTU Dropping Odds	Drop Ratio (%)	Probable Returns	Pre-match Cash Out
2.82	1.02	-64%	€50 x 2.82 = €141	€124.4118*

*Pre-match Cash Out = Probable Returns / Dropping Odds x (1-VIG) = 141/1.02 x (1 - 0,1) = 138.2352 x 0.9 = 124.4118.

The bookmaker’s VIG is 10% (i.e., 0.1 as a decimal number), so you should know how is cash out calculated to have a payout close to his potential winnings without waiting for the match to finish. The outcome difference is only €16.5882, and the clear pre-match profit is €74.418.

---

Also Read: The best basketball betting strategy

---

How to use football dropping odds

The table below presents another example based on this strategy for betting with football dropping odds. Our example refers to the Ternana vs. Cavese match from the Italian Serie C and a €50 Double Chance wager on the visitors.

DC Cavese Starting Odds	DC Cavese Dropping Odds	Drop Ratio (%)	Probable Returns	Pre-match Cash Out
3.67	2.89	-21%	€50 x 3.67 = €183.5	€57.1453

With a 10% VIG and using the pre-match Cash Out service, your clear early returns are €7.1453 (i.e., Pre-match Cash Out - Starting Stake). Your potential earrings would be considerably higher if you let the bet roll, but earning almost €7 without expecting the final result isn’t bad at all.

Where to avoid betting on dropping odds

On the other hand, soft bookmakers prefer to target casual bettors. The odds adjustment is really slow, and the sharp bettors who bet on dropping odds are considered irritating. Choosing to build a dropping odds strategy on these bookies should be risky if you have a specific pattern (i.e., bet on high stakes, always at the same competitions). The most probable ending will be to have account restrictions and limitations. Gubbing is a preventing measure that soft bookies use against sharp bettors.

What is betting against dropping odds

First, check what is moneyline in betting and then learn for an alternative dropping odds strategy, going against them. As many bets are being placed, bookies will be forced to change prices, thus affecting both teams’ probabilities. Once that happens, they no longer correspond with the original match prediction the bookmakers had, which is generally more accurate. Let’s see what happens when Club Leon plays against Toronto FC in the CONCACAF Champions League. The final result was a 1-1 draw.

Starting Odds	Implied Starting Odds	Closing Odds	Implied Closing Odds	Drop Ratio (%)
1.61	62,1%	1.31	76,3%	-18,63%

Using an implied probability calculator, you will understand that the prices on favorites increase of this selection, but the final result didn’t favor that trend. Betting against these odds can be a profitable strategy, wildly when backing underestimated underdogs. The other decision you can make when you see odds dropping up to 15% is to ignore it. This trend has nothing to do with a specific pick’s real winning chances. Let’s look at the Over 3.5 Goals at Half Time for Champions League’s match Dortmund vs. Manchester City.

Starting Odds	Implied Starting Odds	Dropping Odds	Implied Dropping Odds	Drop Ratio (%)
14.78	6,8%	11.72	8,5%	-21%

Here the trend increases the selection’s winning chances from 6.8% to 8.5%. That means nothing about the odds drop because the pick’s implied probability continues being low.

How to Predict Using Dropping Odds & Win

One method to take advantage of dropping odds 1X2, for example, is to create a strategy that can identify the matches where the lines are pushed down on an Asian bookmaker. Τhen you can receive the highest odds offered on a European online bookmaker. Τhat happens because the Asian bookies have ultimately higher ceilings to offer when you place your bet. A bettor can stake a larger amount of money than European bookies, so the faster odds decrease is a pretty typical situation.

If you are quick enough, you will find odds before they drop. Focus on a difference of more than 2.5% (for example, from 2.00 falling to 1.90). It is a simple strategy to use and can give you an idea of a specific selection’s probability. It would help if you remembered that the bookmaker’s target is to balance the potential payouts for all possible outcomes. Keep in mind this equality if you decide to base your strategy on dropping odds 1X2:

Total Bets on Home WIN for Team A x Odds for Team A = Total Bets on Draw x Odds for Draw = Total Bets on Away WIN for Team B x Odds for Team B

When you are sure if the odds are too volatile, you can profit by taking advantage of dropping odds meaning. You can realize the true odds (i.e., reading for their implied probability) and find online betting sites that have not reacted to the dropping odds 1X2. Placing a value bet in these circumstances is worthwhile, and it can secure earnings back.

On the other hand, you can avoid this situation by placing your bets as soon as the odds are set. There is always a difference between initial and closing odds. In this case, you should be prepared; there are last-minute parameters that can influence your bet, such as the disability of a player to take part (e.g., because he is injured) or probable lousy weather conditions.

Where should I bet on dropping odds

You can find the best odds betting sites that offer the most competitive initial and closing prices and provide a wide range of sports and markets in the list underneath.